Coffee finds support in Vietnam production questions


General Comments: Futures were mixed, but generally higher in New York and Sao Paulo while London showed some weakness. News of less world exports in March from the ICO and the potential for less production in the coming year from Vietnam supported the market. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer, and bears note that recently improved rains should help increase Vietnamese production potential this year. Ideas are that supplies available to the market are good. Rains continue in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved in the last week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week and dry conditions are forecast to continue. Central America crops are mostly harvested and it is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.735 million bags. ICE delivery notices are 0 contracts today and now total 137 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 126.68 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICO said that March exports were 9.61 million bags, down 4% from last year. Year to date exports are now 56.1 million bags, from 52.4 million in the previous marketing year. Vietnam said that it expects production in the coming year to be below the 2012-13 level between 1.2 and 1.3 million tons due to prolonged dry weather in the Central Highlands.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 125.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00, and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 1970, 1955, and 1925 July, and resistance is at 2025, 2035, and 2050 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 161 September. Support is at 163.00, 162.00, and 161.00 September, and resistance is at 166.00, 167.50, and 170.00 September.


General Comments: Futures were higher on the slow planting pace as shown by USDA on Monday night. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress even more, but farmers were reported to be actively planting in the north Texas region as temperatures there turned warmer. Cold temperatures should return to the state this weekend. The strong price action in the grains and oilseeds so far this week created some buying in Cotton futures. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. So far, planting of all crops is slow.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains on Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are expected on Thursday. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.516 million bales, from 0.515 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 12 contracts today and now total 526 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.60, 86.30, and 86.10 July, with resistance of 88.00, 88.50, and 88.70 July.

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