General Comments: Futures were mixed, but generally higher in New York and Sao Paulo while London showed some weakness. News of less world exports in March from the ICO and the potential for less production in the coming year from Vietnam supported the market. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer, and bears note that recently improved rains should help increase Vietnamese production potential this year. Ideas are that supplies available to the market are good. Rains continue in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved in the last week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week and dry conditions are forecast to continue. Central America crops are mostly harvested and it is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.735 million bags. ICE delivery notices are 0 contracts today and now total 137 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 126.68 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICO said that March exports were 9.61 million bags, down 4% from last year. Year to date exports are now 56.1 million bags, from 52.4 million in the previous marketing year. Vietnam said that it expects production in the coming year to be below the 2012-13 level between 1.2 and 1.3 million tons due to prolonged dry weather in the Central Highlands.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 125.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00, and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 1970, 1955, and 1925 July, and resistance is at 2025, 2035, and 2050 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 161 September. Support is at 163.00, 162.00, and 161.00 September, and resistance is at 166.00, 167.50, and 170.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher on the slow planting pace as shown by USDA on Monday night. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress even more, but farmers were reported to be actively planting in the north Texas region as temperatures there turned warmer. Cold temperatures should return to the state this weekend. The strong price action in the grains and oilseeds so far this week created some buying in Cotton futures. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. So far, planting of all crops is slow.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains on Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are expected on Thursday. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.516 million bales, from 0.515 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 12 contracts today and now total 526 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.60, 86.30, and 86.10 July, with resistance of 88.00, 88.50, and 88.70 July.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower at the end of a big range trading session that saw prices much higher in the early trading. It was a disappointing close for the bulls. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state and are expected to hit the state later this week on the other hand. The growing conditions in Florida are expected to improve with the rains. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 146.50, 147.50, and 150.50 May.
General Comments: Futures closed higher as bears closed out short positions. Charts show that the market has rejected a chance to move lower, and this is what prompted the buying yesterday. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. The ISO is still calling for a production surplus of up to 8.5 million tons this year. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward. Brazil mills could concentrate on Ethanol production first and Sugar production second, and that could create some short term shortages for the market. Sugar producers in Russia said that the planting pace has turned slow there as producers wrestle with high costs of production against falling domestic and world prices. Chart patterns are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE deliveries were 28,210 contracts, but over half were taken by Cargill.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1725, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1835 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 502.00, 497.00, and 496.00 August, and resistance is at 510.00, 513.00, and 516.00 August.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading and a weaker US Dollar. Chart patterns suggest further rallies could be coming down the road and demand has been better than trade expectations. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid-crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable, although some say that too much rain is hurting the harvest in Indonesia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.690 million bags. ICE said 0 delivery notices were posted against May contracts today and that total deliveries are now 728 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2370 and 2530 July. Support is at 2295, 2275, and 2235 July, with resistance at 2375, 2385, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1465 July. Support is at 1510, 1490, and 1475 July, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 July.