Oil risks new sellers after rally

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 04/30/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.39. Upside Targets = 102.57 – 103.74.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 103.94.
    • June Brent Crude moved to the upside on Monday as it was able to press through last week’s high despite trading within a very narrow range, making room for the spread between itself and WTI to close in further to under $10.
    • Brent is technically approaching key resistance levels where old support could become new resistance at $103.64 and if it is unable to press through $105 then it could risk another fall lower back below $95.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.58
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.28

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.07. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.19. Upside Target = 90.33 – 93.32.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 94.80.
    • June WTI Crude Oil continued higher on Monday as it threatened the $95 mark en route to closing at its highest level in almost three weeks because of a declining USD and rallying equity market.
    • Look for significant resistance at these elevated levels as the market will most likely see new sellers come in after being overbought in the near term to test $93 intraday on Tuesday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.18
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.37
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.201 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.200. Downside Targets = 3.988 – 3.875.
  • Bullish ERVB generated on Monday.
    • June Natural Gas rocketed higher on Monday as it followed through from last Friday’s gains, climbing more than 30 cents throughout the last two trading sessions and nearly erasing all of last week’s losses.
    • Natural gas did finally find a little resistance as it neared the previous breakdown area below $4.40, and given the amount the market is overbought in the near-term, traders could expect to see a modest pullback near at least Monday’s mid-point.
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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