Last year corn plantings were some of the earliest. The U.S. had one of its best corn planting season on record last year. That is what happens when it is 80 degrees here in Chicago on St Patrick’s Day. This year we are seeing the opposite with cold rainy temperatures. With all of the rain that we have seen in the Midwest, with it comes flooding — much of it on Midwestern farm lands. Last week’s Crop Progress showed as of April 21, 2013 only 4% of U.S. corn was planted, whereas the five-year average is 16% and last year was 26%. Last week July 2013 corn opened at 629¾ and closed the week at 619¾. Since March 2010 we have seen corn with a low of 324½ on June 28, 2010 and a high of 843¾ on August 6, 2012.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
On the weekly chart, you can see how big money moved last week in the Disaggregated COT. We still see a bearish posture with Producers liquidating net shorts to -296,061 contracts, Managed Money dropped net longs to 75,031 as did Swap Dealers now net long 258,413 contracts. Over the next few weeks, all eyes will be on corn plantings and if farmers can get the U.S. corn crop in the ground in a timely manner. We may see price action rise over the next few weeks until farmers catch up.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
On the daily chart below we see ADX at 26.3 and dropping and today’s price action has DI+ crossing up over DI-. Now watch for an increasing DI Differential. Today’s price action added divergence to MACD and pulled Stochastics from oversold territory.
Click to enlarge.
Have a prosperous trading week.
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