Cotton rises as rain slows planting progress


General Comments:  Futures were slightly higher to finish the week.  Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress, and farmers were reported to be actively planting in the north Texas region as temperatures there turned warmer.  An active precipitation pattern is expected in the Delta and Southeast this week.  Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices.  Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year.  Producers have been active planting depending on the region involved and weather. 

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see rains later this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will trend to near to above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 79.29 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.508 million bales, from 0.515 million yesterday.  ICE said that delivery notices were 54 contracts today and now total 511 contracts for the month.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 82.80 and 80.40 July.  Support is at 82.90, 82.20, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 85.10, 85.20, and 85.50 July.


General Comments:  Futures closed lower on forecasts for beneficial rains in Florida this week.  Some speculators are rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May as well.  The growing conditions are getting better in many parts of Florida, and are expected to improve over time as showers and rains are forecast for much of the week.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 146.50, 150.50, and 152.00 May.

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