Energy short-term trends bearish

KMH Capital daily forecast for energies

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

ENERGIES

 

Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.39. Upside Targets = 102.57 – 103.74.
    • June Brent Crude reversed course on Wednesday as it made new highs for the week and traded to its highest level in 7 trading sessions in what was a relatively tight trading range as the market has now risen over $5 from last week’s current 2013 low print.
    • Look for this rally to fizzle as it approaches the $104 mark as old support should become new resistance following the massive technical damage the market has suffered during the previous 3 weeks of trading.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.59
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

 

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.07. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.19. Upside Target = 90.33 – 93.32.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 91.98.
    • June WTI Crude Oil was able to extend its gains higher on Wednesday as it violated the previous week’s high and closed at its highest level in 8 trading sessions.
    • Expect for some following through buying on Thursday to push the market higher towards the weekly upside objective at $92.96.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.01
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

 

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.171 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.166. Downside Targets = 3.988 – 3.875.
    • May Natural Gas dropped lower again on Wednesday following an early morning rally that fizzled throughout most of the day as the market made new 5 day lows as it draws closer to the 20-day moving average.
    • As the contract edges closer to expiration there should be more liquidation heading into Thursday’s storage number before the volatility ramps up.
      • Note that a larger than expected increase in storage could push both the May and June contracts below their previous week’s low.
  • Projected Daily Range: .146
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
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