Cotton plantings watched as grain prices sink

Weather the watch word

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower as traders got ready for the weekly export sales report. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress, and it is still cold and dry in the north Texas region. The showers should move out of the Southeast today. The weather after this week is expected to turn somewhat warmer and drier. Some traders think that U.S. planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable cotton futures prices and sinking corn and soybean futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in corn and more in cotton to avoid having corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Producers have been active planting depending on the región involved.  

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains over the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will trend to near normal by Friday and above normal over the weekend. The USDA spot price is now 78.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified cotton stocks are now 0.498 million bales, from 0.487 million yesterday.  ICE said that delivery notices were 29 contracts today and now total 151 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends:Trends in cotton are down with objectives of 82.80 and 80.40 July. Support is at 82.20, 81.70, and 81.00 July, with resistance of 85.10, 85.20, and 85.50 July.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher. Some speculators are rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May as well. The growing conditions are getting better in many parts of Florida, and are expected to improve over time. Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall. Conditions should turn dry again through this weekend. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather. 

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 146.50, 150.50, and 152.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and Sao Paulo, but London was a little lower on some follow through selling. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticípate another big crop out of Brazil starting in summer, and bears note that improved rains should help increase Vietnamese production potential this year. Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road. Rains continue in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions. 

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.739 million bags. ICE delivery notices are 15 contracts today and now total 137 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 128.85 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Vietnam exported 110,000 tons of coffee in April, 30.4% less than in March.Year- to-date exports are now 974,000 tons, from 928,000 tons last year.

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