COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower, with London the leader on the way down. All markets still show signs of completing bottoms. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer, and bears note that improved rains should help increase Vietnamese production potential this year. Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road as Brazil will soon start to harvest. Rains continue in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.740 million bags. ICE delivery notices are 26 contracts today and now total 122 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 128.57 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 145.00 and 151.00 July. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 July, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 150.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 1985, 1970, and 1955 July, and resistance is at 2025, 2035, and 2050 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 171.00, 173.00, and 175.00 September.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower as traders got ready for First Notice Day deliveries today and the weekly export sales report tomorrow. Planting and growing conditions remain in a state of flux in the US. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress, and it is still cold and dry in the north Texas region. The showers should move out of the Southeast by tomorrow. The weather after this week is expected to turn somewhat warmer and drier. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Producers have been active planting depending on the region involved. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains today and over the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will trend to near normal by Friday and above normal over the weekend. The USDA spot price is now 80.11 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.498 million bales, from 0.487 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 122 contracts today and now total 122 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.00, 83.30, and 82.20 May, with resistance of 86.20, 86.60, and 87.50 May.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower again on improving weather. Some speculators are rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May as well. The growing conditions are getting better in many parts of Florida, and are expected to improve over time. Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall. Conditions should turn dry again for the rest of this week. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions after some showers today. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 138.00 and 132.00 May. Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 146.50, 150.50, and 152.00 May.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and remained within the trading range. Traders remain bearish on supplies, and this has hurt New York prices. London traders note that the spread between the two markets makes Sugar processing profitable and that White Sugar supplies should be large as well. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward. However, Brazil mills could concentrate on Ethanol production first and Sugar production second, and that could create some short term shortages for the market. Brazil announced some tax reforms in an effort to create new investment and increase Ethanol production yesterday. Most traders remain bearish longer term on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market. Chart patterns are sideways for the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 496.00, and 494.00 August, and resistance is at 513.00, 516.00, and 520.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher. Chart patterns suggest further rallies could be coming and fundamentals for the short term could support the charts as demand has been better than trade expectations. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is weaker, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. However, weather has improved in western Africa lately with more rain and somewhat cooler temperaturas. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 4.720 million bags. ICE said 0 delivery notices were posted against May contracts today and that total deliveries are now 727 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2370 and 2530 July. Support is at 2295, 2275, and 2255 July, with resistance at 2350, 2385, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1580 and 1670 July. Support is at 1525, 1490, and 1455 July, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 July.
