Coffee falls further on anticipated Brazil crop size

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed lower again on improving weather.  Some speculators are rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May as well.  The growing conditions are getting better in many parts of Florida, and are expected to improve over time.  Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall.  Conditions should turn dry again for the rest of this week.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions after some showers today.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 138.00 and 132.00 May.  Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 146.50, 150.50, and 152.00 May.

SUGAR

General Comments:  Futures closed lower and remained within the trading range.  Traders remain bearish on supplies, and this has hurt New York prices.  London traders note that the spread between the two markets makes Sugar processing profitable and that White Sugar supplies should be large as well.  Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward.  However, Brazil mills could concentrate on Ethanol production first and Sugar production second, and that could create some short term shortages for the market.  Brazil announced some tax reforms in an effort to create new investment and increase Ethanol production yesterday.  Most traders remain bearish longer term on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market.  Chart patterns are sideways for the short term. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 500.00, 496.00, and 494.00 August, and resistance is at 513.00, 516.00, and 520.00 August.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed higher.  Chart patterns suggest further rallies could be coming and fundamentals for the short term could support the charts as demand has been better than trade expectations.  The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is weaker, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season.  However, weather has improved in western Africa lately with more rain and somewhat cooler temperaturas.  Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices.  The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 4.720 million bags. ICE said 0 delivery notices were posted against May contracts today and that total deliveries are now 727 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2370 and 2530 July.  Support is at 2295, 2275, and 2255 July, with resistance at 2350, 2385, and 2400 July.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1580 and 1670 July.  Support is at 1525, 1490, and 1455 July, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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