Orange juice falls on improving growing conditions

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed lower on signs of improving weather.  Some speculators are rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May as well.  The growing conditions are getting better in many parts of Florida, and are expected to improve over time.  Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall.  Conditions should turn dry again for the rest of this week.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions after some showers today.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  USDA said that total FCOJ in Cold Storage is now 89,829 gallons, from 88,455 in February and 95,691 gallons last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 138.00 and 132.00 May.  Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 140.50, 150.50, and 152.00 May.

COTTON

General Comments:  Futures were higher on talk of more Chinese buying interest.  No new buying has been confirmed, but China has been buying here, anyway, despite big government stocks that are becoming available to industry there.  Planting and growing conditions remain in a state of flux in the US.  Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast this week to slow planting progress, and it is still cold and dry in the north Texas region.  The weather after this week is expected to turn somewhat warmer and drier.  Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices.  Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year.  Producers have been active planting depending on the region involved.  Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately. 

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see rains and storms over the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average below normal.  Texas will get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average much below normal through Wednesday, then will trend to near normal by Friday.  The USDA spot price is now 80.93 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.498 million bales, from 0.487 million yesterday.   USDA said that Cotton is now 10% planted, from 8% last week, 17% last year, and 14% average.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 85.00, 84.00, and 83.30 May, with resistance of 86.60, 87.50, and 88.00 May.

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