Natural gas falls on weather, storage expectations

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 04/23/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.39. Downside Targets = 96.77 – 93.27.
    • June Brent Crude traded just two ticks through the price listed in this weekend’s report of 101.02 before dropping a shade lower into the settlement while trading to its highest level in 5 days.
    • While some non-trend following traders may be looking to pick up the market at discounted levels, should new lows for the week be made between Tuesday & Wednesday, expect for Brent to drop lower once again as it goes after my Q2 objective of $93.27.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.59
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.07. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.19. Upside Target = 90.33.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Monday.
    • June WTI Crude Oil advanced from early session losses to settle at its highest mark in five trading session, giving a little breath of air for this severely battered market.
    • This breath may not last long however as the rally has given fresh opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market and as it the case with Brent, should Monday’s low be violated in the first half of the week, expect continued selling to at least $83.06.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.97
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/05/13 @ 3.986 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/05/13 @ 4.045. Upside Targets = 4.193 – 4.238.
    • May Natural Gas dropped back lower on Monday after a revised weather forecast showed higher than expected temperatures in the upcoming days while pushing the market to close below a short-term trendline.
    • With any additional follow through on Tuesday, natural gas could see some panic selling going into contract expiration to go along with most likely the largest storage injection of the year.
  • Projected Daily Range: .132
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus