General Comments: Futures closed mixed, with New York generally a little higher and London generally a little lower. The European grind data was less than last year and hurt the price action yesterday. After the close, the U.S. data was announced and showed increased demand from last year and should support higher values today. Chart patterns suggest further rallies could be coming and fundamentals for the short term could support the charts as demand seems to be better than trade expectations. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is weaker, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. However, weather has improved in western Africa lately with more rain and somewhat cooler temperatures. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well. Demand remains a big problem, with analysts looking for lower grind data from Europe when the data is released today. The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.719 million bags. ICE said 0 delivery notices were posted against May contracts today and that total deliveries are now 727 contracts. The US Cocoa grind was 125,887 tons in the first quarter, from 119,022 tons last year. LIFFE stocks are now 6,439 standard units, 137 large units, and 7 bulk units.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2370 and 2530 July. Support is at 2275, 2255, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2330, 2350, and 2385 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1580 and 1670 July. Support is at 1490, 1455, and 1430 July, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower as traders responded more to news that China was releasing state reserves built up over the last two years for purchase by mills tan to the strong export sales report. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast today to slow planting progress. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains and storms today and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal, but near to above normal by Monday. Texas will get dry weather, but a few showers could appear in northern areas on Monday. Temperatures will average near to below normal today, and then will trend to ear to above normal by Monday. The USDA spot price is now 80.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.487 million bales, from 0.477 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.00, 82.60, and 81.40 May, with resistance of 85.40, 86.20, and 86.50 May
Next page: Orange Juice, Coffee and Sugar
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to speculative long liquidation. Some speculators are now rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May. Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread, even with some rains late last week. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives. Support is at 144.00, 141.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance at 152.00, 155.00, and 158.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher on what was called speculative short covering. London was a little higher and all markets show signs of completing a bottom. Spreads in both London and New York have been firm, implying the market has demand and fewer offers. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer and as traders move out of May positions before the deliveries start. However, the government told the press yesterday that it is still working on a new support program for its producers. Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road as Brazil will soon start to harvest. Rains have increased in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry this week and the dry weather could continue into next week. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.735 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 12,625 lots. The ICO composite price is now 131.47 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 142.00, and 145.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2075 May. Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1970 May, and resistance is at 2050, 2060, and 2080 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 174.00, 176.00, and 180.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move before finding enough support to climb back to the recent trading range. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward. Most traders remain bearish longer term on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market. Chart patterns are sideways for the short term. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting this month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 496.00, 494.00, and 491.00 August, and resistance is at 510.00, 513.00, and 516.00 August.