Cocoa mixed as fundamentals show weakness


General Comments:  Futures closed lower on what appeared to speculative long liquidation.  Some speculators are now rolling positions or liquidating positions as First Notice Day is coming with the start of May.  Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item.  Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed.  Irrigation is widespread, even with some rains late last week.  Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives.  Support is at 144.00, 141.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance at 152.00, 155.00, and 158.00 May.


General Comments: Futures were higher on what was called speculative short covering.  London was a little higher and all markets show signs of completing a bottom.  Spreads in both London and New York have been firm, implying the market has demand and fewer offers.  Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer and as traders move out of May positions before the deliveries start.  However, the government told the press yesterday that it is still working on a new support program for its producers.  Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road as Brazil will soon start to harvest.  Rains have increased in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved.  Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry this week and the dry weather could continue into next week.  Production ideas remain big there.  Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for new crop flowering.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.735 million bags.  LIFFE stocks are now 12,625 lots.  The ICO composite price is now 131.47 ct/lb.  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 142.00, and 145.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2075 May.  Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1970 May, and resistance is at 2050, 2060, and 2080 May.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 174.00, 176.00, and 180.00 September.


General Comments:  Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move before finding enough support to climb back to the recent trading range.  Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward.  Most traders remain bearish longer term on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market.  Chart patterns are sideways for the short term.  Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting this month and that a big offer is expected.  Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 496.00, 494.00, and 491.00 August, and resistance is at 510.00, 513.00, and 516.00 August.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at Learn even more on our website at

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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