Sugar falls as large Brazil harvest continues


General Comments: Futures closed lower in range trading. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil. Talk that rain in production areas last week was hurting harvest progress was bullish, but the weather there is drier this week. Most traders remain bearish longer term on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market. Chart patterns are sideways for the short term. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting this month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 511.00 August. Support is at 496.00, 494.00, and 491.00 August, and resistance is at 510.00, 513.00, and 516.00 August.


General Comments: Futures were higher in recovery trading. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast today and tomorrow to slow planting progress. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains and storms through the end of the week and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal, but near to above normal by Monday. Texas will get dry weather, but a few showers could appear in northern areas on Monday. Temperatures will average near to below normal today, then will trend to ear to above normal by Monday. The USDA spot price is now 81.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.468 million bales, from 0.462 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 211,200 bales this year and 36,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 15,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year. China is offering reserve Cotton from 2011 imports and 2012 domestic production to mills.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.00, 82.60, and 81.40 May, with resistance of 85.40, 86.20, and 86.50 May.

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