Natural gas finds buyers on the dips

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday, 04/17/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Downside Targets = 96.77 – 93.27.
    • June Brent Crude dropped lower in the overnight session to begin Tuesday’s trading before recapturing some of the lost gains to close in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
    • After trading to its lowest level in nine months and fulfilling the weekly trading range objectives, expect some backing and filling to continue in early trading Wednesday before domestic storage numbers are released.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/09/13 @ 93.05. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/09/13 @ 91.91. Downside Targets = 88.75 – 87.54.
  • New lows made on the current move Tuesday @ 86.06.
    • June WTI Crude Oil fought back after extending its losses from Monday into the overnight trading session Tuesday before rallying to settle just off the highs of the day and near the current weekly mid-point.
    • Should storage numbers give off another bearish reading on Wednesday, look for the short covering rally witnessed in today’s price action to give way to further selling and a retest of the current weekly lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.88
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.78
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/05/13 @ 3.986 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/05/13 @ 4.045. Upside Targets = 4.193 – 4.238.
    • May Natural Gas gave way to additional selling in the early goings of Tuesday’s pit session before rallying more than 7 cents going into the end of trading back near the day’s highs and Monday’s mid-range.
    • Tuesday price action was just more of the same that traders have seen over the past few weeks with sharp declines being used as buying opportunities for new long entries.
      • Should Tuesday prove to be a short-covering rally much as was seen in the oil markets, the market could see another significant drop lower heading into Thursday storage report.
  • Projected Daily Range: .132
  • Projected Weekly Range: .260
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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