Cotton lower after USDA shows slow planting progress

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower in response to disappointing economic data from China. Most commodities markets moved lower to sharply lower, and precious metals and the petroleum complex led the way down. USDA showed slow planting progress in its reports today as weather remains a big issue. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather early in the week and rains and storms later in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal in the week and near to below later in the week. Texas will get dry weather except for a few showers on Wednesday. Temperatures will average near to above normal and much below normal late4r in the week. The USDA spot price is now 79.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.456 million bales, from 0.449 million yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 8% planted, from 13% last year and 10% average.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.00, 83.50, and 82.60 May, with resistance of 86.20, 86.50, and 87.10 May.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher as traders continue to look for reduced production in Florida this year. Some good rains were seen in the state over the weekend, but drought conditions persist overall. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread, even with some rains late last week. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives. Support is at 148.00, 144.00, and 141.00 May, with resistance at 155.00, 158.00, and 161.00 May.

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