Stock indexes hit new highs as minor trend breaks to upside

MAAD & CPFL Review


Market Snapshot for session ending 4-10-13


Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Positive

Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

* Cycle status is based on S&P 500.

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes rallied to best levels since March 2009 Wednesday. Only NASDAQ Composite has yet to better March 2000 high (5132.52) to reach new all-time closing high.
  • Trading Volume rose 12.6% relative to Tuesday’s levels.
  • S&P 500 remains positive on Minor Cycle and must sell below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1554.31 through Thursday) to suggest short-term negative. Intermediate Cycle in S&P 500 remains positive until 1493.28 through April 12.
  • Daily MAAD rallied to new short to intermediate high Wednesday and to best level since December 13, 2007. Daily MAAD Ratio moved higher into moderately “Overbought” territory at 1.47.
  • Daily CPFL was positive by 3.38 to 1 Wednesday and moved to new short to intermediate-term high. Daily CPFL Ratio was just above “Neutral” at 1.06.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Upside break by major indexes Wednesday, especially S&P 500 and Dow 30, resolved near-term indecision prevalent for better part of past three weeks.
  • Strength on Minor Cycle also re-asserted still positive intermediate trend that began after November 16 lows.
  • Strength in NASDAQ Composite, Value Line index, and Daily MAAD and CPFL underscored gain. Short-term trend remains “Overbought,” however, and Minor Cycle volatility remains in bearish zone.
  • Nonetheless, we must regard ALL short-term pullbacks as merely corrective so long as larger Intermediate Cycle remains positive.


Index Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows ) Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

SELL 1552.00

SELL 1554.37

SELL 1554.19

SELL 1554.31

SELL 1551.97

SELL 1493.28

SELL 1349.76

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 14458.16

SELL 14482.65

SELL 14495.45

SELL 14508.06

SELL 14500.21

SELL 13801.77

SELL 12653.67

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3259.49

BUY 3261.64

BUY 3262.05

BUY 3256.15

BUY 3247.18

SELL 3128.04

SELL 2882.50

Value Line Index

BUY 3542.79

BUY 3540.54

BUY 3534.99

BUY 3524.00

BUY 3512.66

SELL 3352.98

SELL 2859.75

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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