General Comments: Futures were a little higher on news that the Brazil government will look to raise the minimum price paid to farmers by 30% in an effort to raise prices. It also said it was considering the use of options or direct subsidies to farmers for support. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer and as traders move out of May positions before the deliveries start in the next couple of weeks. Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road. The new Brazilian harvest is just a couple of months away, and traders expected big offers to develop on rallies. No one had been paying much attention to the reports of rust in Central America and parts of South America and prefer to concentrate on Brazil and also on improving production conditions in Vietnam. That is because the Central American losses appear to be made up by bigger production in other countries, including Brazil. Rains have increased in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and there are showers around. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.756 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.95 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. A few showers are posible in northern Central America and southeastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1990, 1980, and 1955 May. Support is at 1970, 1950, and 1915 May, and resistance is at 2030, 2045, and 2060 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 174.00, 176.00, and 177.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher. Nearby months were a little higher in New York on ideas of more logistical problems in Brazil and on reports of slow shipments from there. Talk that some rain in production areas was hurting harvest progress also created buying. Most traders remain bearish on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market. Traders know that there might be less production in India and Thailand, but expect Brazil to produce enough to cover any losses. So far, no new demand is being reported, and chart patterns continue to look weak. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1790, 1800, and 1810 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 481.00 August, and resistance is at 496.00, 500.00, and 505.00 August.
Next page: Cotton, Orange Juice and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. The domestic estimates featured slightly more production, but more demand as well to keep the ending stocks estimates unchanged. World data showed increased ending stocks estimates, but only due to the Chinese government stockpiling. Ending stocks estimates for the rest of the world were actually lower, and this provided a lot of the reason to buy futures. Ideas are that Cotton prices will now hold strong for a while due to the estimates released yesterday. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather except for rain today. Temperatures will trend to below normal this week and will turn warmer this weekend. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week but will warm up again this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 80.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.441 million bales, from 0.431 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 147,100 bales this year and 17,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 5,600 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.00, 78.85, and 74.95 May. Support is at 84.40, 84.00, and 82.60 May, with resistance of 86.10, 86.50, and 87.10 May.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in reaction to the USDA production reports that met expectations. USDA dropped production estimates by another 1.0 million boxes in its reports as expected by the trade. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread, even with some rains late last week. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 144.00, 142.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance at 152.00, 153.00, and 156.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders wait for the mid crop harvest in western Africa. It was mostly a consolidation trade yesterday, but chart patteerns suggest further rallies could be coming. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is weaker, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. However, weather has improved in western Africa lately with more rain and somewhat cooler temperaturas. Demand remains a big problema, with analysts looking for lower grind data from Europe when the data is released next Wednesday. For now, traders expect mid crop production from West Africa to hit the market soon, and wire reports said that the harvest started this week in Nigeria. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.614 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2240 and 2370 May. Support is at 2170, 2140, and 2110 May, with resistance at 2220, 2260, and 2285 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1400, 1490, and 1565 May. Support is at 1450, 1430, and 1410 May, with resistance at 1495, 1520, and 1550 May.