Natural gas bounces off $4 support ahead of storage report

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday 04/10/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Downside Targets = 105.41 – 103.38.
    • May Brent Crude moved higher off the recent contract/2013 lows on Tuesday on the heels of a batter USD and a market that was significantly oversold into some ST support.
    • This rally should most likely use the mid-point of the previous consolidation zone between $106.80 and $110 as a new resistance zone after the short-covering is over for a possible move back lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.17
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/09/13 @ 93.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/09/13 @ 94.20. Upside Targets = 95.23 – 96.15.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 94.20.
    • May WTI Crude Oil moved higher for the second straight day on Tuesday as it may have put in a bottom for the week while reversing the ST trend to bullish after confirming a higher low.
    • In a rare sequence of event lately, WTI lagged Brent on the advance and even though shorter time intervals are pointing toward a retest of the current April high’s, look for this rally to be sold aggressively up to and just through the $95 mark as part of a longer term move lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.53
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.08
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/05/13 @ 3.986 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/05/13 @ 4.045. Upside Targets = 4.193 – 4.238.
    • May Natural Gas followed through on Monday evening’s report as it traded to within 4 ticks of the $4 threshold before bouncing off that level slightly into the close of the trading session.
    • Current intra-day charting points to a possible bounce higher back near the $4.12 mark before meeting possible resistance ahead of Thursday’s storage number.
  • Projected Daily Range: .117
  • Projected Weekly Range: .229
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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