| Market Snapshot for session ending 4-9-13 | |||||
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change |
|||
|
S&P 500 Index |
1568.61 |
+5.54 |
+.35% |
||
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
14673.46 |
+59.97 |
+.41% |
||
|
NASDAQ Composite |
3237.85 |
+15.60 |
+.48% |
||
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
3496.51 |
+1.99 |
+.06% |
||
|
Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Positive |
Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive |
Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive |
|||
* Cycle status is based on S&P 500.
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Dow 30 rallied to new all-time closing high Tuesday, but action was solitary. S&P 500 came close to April second closing high (1570.25), but failed. NASDAQ Composite and Value Line index rebounded, but remain negative on Minor Cycle.
- Trading Volume rose 12.2% compared to Monday.
- S&P 500 remains positive on Minor Cycle and must sell below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1554.37 through Wednesday) to suggest Minor Cycle negative. Intermediate Cycle in S&P 500 remains positive until 1493.28 through April 12.
- Daily MAAD rallied to new short to intermediate high Tuesday and eclipsed March 11 peak. Daily MAAD Ratio moved upward into moderately “Overbought” territory at 1.42.
- Daily CPFL was positive by 1.08 to 1 Tuesday, but remains below new short to intermediate high made March 27. Daily MAAD Ratio was last toward “Neutral” at .93.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Tuesday’s new high in Dow 30 and new short to intermediate high in Daily MAAD gave more positive flavor to short-term trend that had been waffling. But failure of S&P 500 to also make new high with NASDAQ Composite and VAY still negative on near-term trend leaves big question mark over market.
- New closing high in Dow is important, but that action was only part of equation. There must be upside follow through by other indexes.
- Short-term trend also remains vulnerable to extent it is not “Oversold” and near-term volatility continues to hold in bearish territory.
- Nonetheless, we must regard ALL short-term pullbacks as merely corrections in intermediate trend so long as larger cycle remains intact.
| Index | Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows ) | Weekly | Monthly | ||||
|
4/8 |
4/9 |
4/10 |
4/11 |
4/12 |
4/12 |
4/30 |
|
|
S&P 500 Index |
SELL 1552.00 |
SELL 1554.37 |
SELL 1554.19 |
SELL 1554.31 |
SELL 1551.97 |
SELL 1493.28 |
SELL 1349.76 |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
SELL 14458.16 |
SELL 14482.65 |
SELL 14495.45 |
SELL 14508.06 |
SELL 14500.21 |
SELL 13801.77 |
SELL 12653.67 |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
BUY 3259.49 |
BUY 3261.64 |
BUY 3262.05 |
BUY 3256.15 |
BUY 3247.18 |
SELL 3128.04 |
SELL 2882.50 |
|
Value Line Index |
BUY 3542.79 |
BUY 3540.54 |
BUY 3534.99 |
BUY 3524.00 |
BUY 3512.66 |
SELL 3352.98 |
SELL 2859.75 |
Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.
Next page: Indicator review
About the Author
Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.
If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available.