FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be some long liquidation after the big rally on Friday. Traders are getting ready for the next USDA reports that will be released tomorrow morning. Ideas are that USDA could drop production estimates by another 1.0 million boxes in its reports this week. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread, even with some rains late last week. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 152.00 May. Support is at 142.00, 140.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 156.00 May.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday on ideas of weaker demand due to the Chinese and US economic data and on some ideas of increasing planted area due to recent weakness in Corn and Soybeans. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released at the end of March due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets, but export demand is a little less lately.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather except for rain Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will trend to below normal this week. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.427 million bales, from 0.421 million yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 5% planted, from 9% last year and 7% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.00, 78.85, and 74.95 May. Support is at 86.20, 85.60, and 84.00 May, with resistance of 87.10, 87.80, and 88.70 May.
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Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
