Natural gas loses momentum, could test $4

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday 04/09/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/03/13 @ 109.37. Downside Targets = 105.41 – 103.38.
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 103.40.
    • May Brent Crude followed through on last week’s bearish price action by violating the weekly lows established last week before rallying into the second half of trading back near the daily support Bollinger Band.
    • Brent should continue to do some back and filling after last week’s vicious sell-off before facing fresh resistance near the $107 mark and falling to make new annual lows in the coming weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.98
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/03/13 @ 95.91. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/03/13 @ 94.45. Downside Targets = 92.11 – 90.98.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.76. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 93.76 or higher.
    • May WTI Crude Oil narrowly avoided generating a close above the high of the low day on Monday as traders moved the market higher in reprieve of last week’s aggressive sell-off.
    • As is the case with Brent, traders should look for WTI to move a shade higher back above $94.23 before a new wave of selling hits and violates the outside trading patterns low from last week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.08
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/05/13 @ 3.986 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/05/13 @ 4.045. Upside Targets = 4.193 – 4.238.
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 4.180.
    • May Natural Gas gapped higher to begin this week’s trading activity before being sold off steadily throughout most of Monday’s pit session to settle in the lower 35% of the day’s trading range.
    • Monday’s price action suggest that the bulls were unable to sustain the momentum necessary for an push above $4.20 and the market could see additional weakness as it tests the $4 threshold on Tuesday.
  • Projected Daily Range: .113
  • Projected Weekly Range: .229
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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