Corn, wheat, soybeans eye key USDA report this week

Grain & Oilseeds Report

Corn: We are hearing that planters are already moving in central/southern Illinois as well as southern Indiana. Current conditions look good for that area, and it is likely that some wanted to have a few acres in the ground before the upcoming four-day rain event moves in. This doesn’t sound like rushed planting in marginal conditions, as these areas wanted to start planting this week anyway.

Both old and new crop corn held last week’s lows Monday, which bulls will be counting on. That would mean May holding 626 1/2 support and December holding 525 1/2. Corn bears are looking for a larger than expected ending stocks number Wednesday along with just moderate planting pace…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: Wednesday, the USDA will be releasing an updated supply/demand report. The average trade guess for the bean ending stocks is 138 million bushels, up from last month’s 125 million estimated. The range of estimates for the report is 115 to 160 million bushels. Allendale is estimating ending stocks to come in at 139 million bushels. For the week, the May beans were down 44 cents.

New trading hours began Sunday night. The electronic market will now open at 7 p.m., close at 7:45 a.m. then resume trading at 8:30 a.m. until they close at 1:15 p.m. The Chicago pit will open at 8:30 a.m. and close at 1:15 p.m. All times are Central.

Barring a bullish surprise on Wednesday's report, the bean market looks like it might struggle until we can confirm an uptick in demand or get some positive news about the bird flu outbreak in China…Jim McCormick
Wheat: Looking at the current snow pack on Allendale’s website, we can see spring flooding could be a major concern. Planting usually starts late April and lasts until May and harvest is in August through September. If we see delays in planting, this could be a major issue.

Estimates for this Wednesday’s WASDE report are expected to rise from 716 million bushels to 731 million bushels. After the quarterly grain stocks report was bearish, the question becomes how many additional bushels we will see on the WASDE report. After we get through this report, we will trade more weather than anything…Cordon Sroka

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.

comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome