Economic expectations not met, stock market reacts

Stock and Commodity Report

Grains and Oilseeds: May corn closed at $6.28 ¾ per bushel, down 1 1/4c on continued long liquidation even against a weak dollar. The recent USDA report was negative and we so new reason for expending change for now. We prefer the sidelines. May wheat closed at $6.99 ½ per bushel, up 5 1/2c mostly tied to shortcovering and the weak dollar but here again we see no reason to "jump in" at current levels. The last couple of session gains not enough to move us to the long side. Stay out for now. May soybeans closed at $13.62 per bushel, down another 10c even against the weak dollar. Recent dollar strength has moved demand from the U.S. to Brazil and Argentina and concern over reduced demand from China tied to their "bird flu" issue pressuring prices for soybeans. We prefer the sidelines here as well.

Meats: June cattle closed at $1.21550, down 80 points after some sporadic cash steer buying tied to packer competition for slaughter inventory. The sharp selloff over the past months that took prices down from $1.33 per pound level made an interim bottom and prompted shortcovering and some new buying. We like cattle but would only buy minimally and using stop protection. With the summer ‘barbecue season" not far off, we could see some buying to replenish some inventories. June hogs closed at 89.4c per pound, down 2.625c on long liquidation and new short positions tied to potential decline for pork by China. We continue to favor the sidelines in hogs.

Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar: May coffee closed at $1.4045 per pound, up 95 points on recent buying from the $1.32 level. The recent strength was tied to concern of possible crop production cuts in Vietnam and Central America due to drought and rust problem. We like coffee from here after having been "absent" from this market for some time. Use stop protection. May cocoa closed at $2,130 per tonne, down $11.00 on long liquidation tied to the prospect of improved crop prospects in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest grower of cocoa beans, any production gains impacts prices. Stay out for now. May sugar closed at 17.73c per pound, up 8 ticks on light shortcovering but prices remain near recent lows tied to surplus concerns. We prefer the sidelines until fundamentals improve.

Cotton: May cotton closed at 86.65c per pound, down 1.68c on profittaking after recent strength that saw prices gain almost 15% since the beginning of the year. Strong demand from China had been a major factor but with "bird flu" concerns impacting demand for commodities by China, we prefer the sidelines now after having been bullish for some time. The USDA report last week suggested U.S. farmers would be planting fewer acres had prompted the buying was not enough to offset the demand concerns.

About the Author
John L. Caiazzo

Website: www.acuvest.com

E-mail: futures@acuvest.com

Information provided is from sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Futures and Options trading involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. John Caiazzo is a registered commodities broker with over 40 years experience in investments and opinions are his own and not of the Futures Commission Merchant to which he introduces his clients.

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