After data showed the nation added less than half the number of jobs economists forecast in March, the U.S. stock market recoiled from close to 2013 highs this morning. The JUN13 E-mini S&P 500 is down 15 points to 1540 this morning. The JUN13 E-mini Nasdaq is down more on a percentage basis, trading down more than 30 points to 2753. The jobs report raised concerns that the U.S. economy is growing at a pace that doesn’t warrant the stock market holding above all time highs.
Our key short term pivot level for the S&P 500 is 1538. The market dipped below this level only to rise back up to 1540. We believe the market could sell off into the weekend, especially as tensions in North Korea are certainly escalating.
Crude oil and gold, two widely watched commodities, are moving in opposite directions today. APR13 gold is up $16, likely on the market taking into account more stimulus by the BOJ, BOE, and the ECB. Crude oil is down again today, trading down almost $1 to $92.36. We believe that if crude oil gets below $90, we could see some big selling.
Natural Gas is looking to be “unhinged” from the rest of the commodities markets. Natural gas, after a minor consolidation, is up big today, trading up $.15 to $4.10. We believe the next upside target is right around $4.17, and the key pivot level for this market is at $3.90. $3.90 is the bottom of the recent consolidation, and we believe this will serve as excellent support for this market.