COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on what was called speculative selling. Charts show that the market may have failed against some important resistance áreas. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is falling and traders are taking note. Weather continues good in Africa and as some crop size estimates for next year start to increase. Ideas are that production in the coming year will be short, even with increased production ideas. Some buying has been seen in the next crop months because of these ideas. The market is trying to mount a seasonal rally now that the main harvest is over in Western Africa. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa, and wire reports said that the harvest started this week in Nigeria. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.626 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 6,422 standard lots, 137 large lots, and 7 bulk lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2075, and 2035 May, with resistance at 2170, 2190, and 2220 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1400 May, with resistance at 1480, 1495, and 1520 May.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading. Traders expected bullish export sales data from USDA, but reacted more to disappointing economic news released early in the day. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released last week due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Corn and Soybeans futures could show some stability for the short term after the dramatic price action over the last week. Weather will also be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather except for rain over the next couple of days. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will get dry weather except for a few showers in northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal by Friday and above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 83.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.421 million bales, from 0.422 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 87.80, 87.10, and 86.20 May, with resistance of 88.70, 89.80, and 90.25 May.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Coffee
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed firm as bulls talked of increasing crop losses in Florida due to the greening disease, drought, and cold temperatures that were seen a couple of weeks ago. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to below normal temperatures and scattered showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 146.00 and 152.00 May. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher across the board as New York rallied and pulled the other markets higher. Traders noted decreased exports from Guatemala because of the rust, and also the marketing loan program modifications from the Brazil government that will make it easier for producers there to hold old and new crop supplies off the market. Guatemala March exports were down 17% from March of last year. The new Brazilian harvest is just a couple of months away, and traders expected big offers to develop on rallies. No one had been paying much attention to the reports of rust in Central America and parts of South America and prefer to concentrate on Brazil and also on improving production conditions in Vietnam. But the decreased exports from Central America as seen with the data from Guatemala yesterday changed some ideas, and chart patterns also show the potential for a low to be developing. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and major crop losses are being estimated by traders and producers. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and there are showers around. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 2.743 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.58 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 12,162 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990 May. Support is at 1995, 1970, and 1950 May, and resistance is at 2060, 2080, and 2100 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 179.00, 186.00, and 187.00 September. Support is at 170.00, 168.00, and 166.00 September, and resistance is at 176.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mixed, with New York higher and London a little lower. It appeared to be a mostly short covering rally. Ideas of weak demand and big supplies keep traders negative to prices. Traders know that ther might be less production in India and Thailand, but expect Brazil to produce enough to cover any losses. The market could be in a new down trend. So far, no new demand is being reported, and chart patterns continue to look weak. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1800 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 486.00 and 481.00 August. Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 481.00 August, and resistance is at 496.00, 500.00, and 505.00 August.
