Natural gas stagnates on calls for warmer weather

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday 04/03/2013


OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar


Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/27/13 @ 109.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/27/13 @ 109.69. Upside Targets = 111.81 – 113.06.
  • New highs made on the current move @ 111.79.
    • May Brent Crude was unable to sustain the early week strength following a daily RBB penetration that failed to close convincingly after dropping nearly $2 throughout the day.
    • Tuesday’s weak price action in the after-market hour’s points toward a lower low on Wednesday before the market can ultimately find support near $109.32.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.62
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.26
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.72

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/25/13 @ 93.95. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/07/13 @ 92.03. Upside Targets = 95.35 – 96.41.
    • May WTI Crude Oil once again rallied back from early morning weakness on Tuesday to close back above $97 before a late session sell-off occurred suggesting a third retest of the week’s lows.
    • If WTI makes new lows for the week after tomorrow’s storage report, expect for the market to trade down below $95 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/27/13 @ 4.031 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/25/13 @ 4.051. Upside Targets = 4.135.
    • May Natural Gas generated an inside compression day on Tuesday despite closing lower for the third consecutive trade session as warmer temps expected over the coming weeks have stagnated prices for the last two weeks.
    • Natural gas still was unable to drop through Monday’s low and the $3.90 market that has given this market support over the past weeks and traders will need to see a print below last week’s low of $3.885 before any significant move lower can be made.
  • Projected Daily Range: .119
  • Projected Weekly Range: .246
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at or visit his website at

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