General Comments: Futures were lower across the board as traders anticipated increased offers from Brazil. The new Brazilian harvest is just a couple of months away, and traders expect big offers to develop on rallies. No one is paying much attention to the reports of rust in Central America and parts of South America and prefer to concentrate on Brazil and also on improving production conditions in Vietnam. Arabica prices had rallied from the lows as traders look at the potential for major losses in producing areas due to the rust. Brazil producers are holding crops for now and are waiting for higher prices before selling, or else some government support via a marketing program. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and major crop losses are being estimated by traders and producers. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and there are showers around. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.738 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 129.40 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The ICO said that world Coffee exports were 8.63 million bags in February, down 11% from the previous year. Year to date exports are now 46.49 million bags, from 42.41 million in 2011-12.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 139.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2020 and 1990 May. Support is at 2015, 2000, and 1970 May, and resistance is at 2060, 2080, and 2100 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 165.00 September, and resistance is at 173.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher on ideas that more Chinese demand is coming, but gave back some gains on ideas that USDA was too low in its acreage projections for plantings in the coming year. China is buying a lot of Cotton from its producers at high prices, and this leaves industry there to import. Most of those imports come from the US. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released last week due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will also be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for exports have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather except for rain over the next couple of days. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will get dry weather except for a few showers today. Temperatures will average near to above normal by Friday. The USDA spot price is now 83.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.424 million bales, from 0.418 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 87.10, 86.20, and 85.60 May, with resistance of 89.80, 90.25, and 90.45 May.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed higher as bulls talked of increasing crop losses in Florida due to the greening disease, drought, and cold temperatures that were seen a couple of weeks ago. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Irrigation is widespread. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 146.00 and 152.00 May. Support is at 138.00, 135.00, and 132.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed mostly lower again on ideas of big production, mostly from Brazil. Ideas of weak demand and big supplies keep traders negative to prices. The market could be starting a new trend down. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York and plenty of offers when a rally is made. So far, no new demand is being reported, and chart patterns continue to look weak. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. India has produced 23.05 million tons of Sugar so far this marketing yeawr, down 2% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1800 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 490.50, 487.00, and 484.00 August, and resistance is at 500.00, 505.00, and 510.00 August.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Charts show that the market is up against some important resistance areas and is preparing for a move one way or another. Chart patterns for now suggest that the next move should be up. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is falling and traders are taking note. Weather continues good in Africa and as some crop size estimates for next year start to increase. Ideas are that production in the coming year will be short, even with increased production ideas. Some buying has been seen in the next crop months because of these ideas. The market is trying to mount a seasonal rally now that the main harvest is over in Western Africa. Ideas are that current low prices should create new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid-crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.542 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2240 and 2370 May. Support is at 2160, 2110, and 2075 May, with resistance at 2190, 2220, and 2235 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1420, and 1405 May, with resistance at 1475, 1495, and 1520 May.