Orange juice prices in crop losses from greening disease


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on ideas that most of the crop losses had been factored into prices already. Prices acted weak and it does seem as if the market has priced in crop losses for now. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is over, and the Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Drier weather is expected this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 132.00, 131.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 138.00, 139.00, and 140.00 May.


General Comments: Futures were lower as traders saw USDA forecast less planted area for the US this year. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released last week due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will also be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for exports have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather until a few showers appear over the middle of the week in southern areas. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will get dry weather except for a few showers tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal early this week and near to above normal by Friday. The USDA spot price is now 82.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.424 million bales, from 0.418 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 87.10, 86.20, and 85.60 May, with resistance of 89.10, 89.80, and 90.45 May.

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