General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on ideas that most of the crop losses had been factored into prices already. Prices acted weak and it does seem as if the market has priced in crop losses for now. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Weather is good for production overall, but more rain is needed. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is over, and the Valencia harvest is continuing. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Drier weather is expected this weekend.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some precipitation is likely on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 132.00, 131.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 138.00, 139.00, and 140.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were lower as traders saw USDA forecast less planted area for the US this year. Some traders think that US planted area will increase from the estimates released last week due to more favorable Cotton futures prices and sinking Corn and Soybeans futures prices. Weather will also be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for exports have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather until a few showers appear over the middle of the week in southern areas. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will get dry weather except for a few showers tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal early this week and near to above normal by Friday. The USDA spot price is now 82.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.424 million bales, from 0.418 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 87.10, 86.20, and 85.60 May, with resistance of 89.10, 89.80, and 90.45 May.
Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and Sao Paulo, and London was closed. Arabica prices rallied from the lows as traders look at the potential for major losses in producing areas due to the rust. The size of the loss is becoming apparent and traders are starting to take notice. Ideas that futures had fallen far enough to take care of current supply encouraged some short covering. Brazil producers are holding crops for now and are waiting for higher prices before selling, or else some government support via a marketing program. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and major crop losses are being estimated by traders and producers. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.739 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.04 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 147.00, 152.00, and 180.00 May. Support is at 136.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2020 and 1990 May. Support is at 2015, 2000, and 1970 May, and resistance is at 2080, 2100, and 2130 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 165.00 September, and resistance is at 173.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed mixed to mostly lower on ideas of big production, mostly from Brazil. Ideas of weak demand and big supplies keep traders negative to prices. Nearby months were able to gain a bit on some speculative buying as traders note the big problems with logistics in Brazil. The market could be starting a new trend down. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York and plenty of offers when a rally is made. So far, no new demand is being reported, but futures are finding some buying support, anyway. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil through Friday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1725 and 1610 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1790, 1800, and 1810 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 490.50, 487.00, and 484.00 August, and resistance is at 500.00, 505.00, and 510.00 August.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on reports of smaller offers from producing countries, mostly from Ivory Coast. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is falling and traders are taking note. Weather continues good in Africa and as some crop size estimates for next year start to increase. Ideas are that production in the coming year will be short, even with increased production ideas. Some buying has been sen in the next crop months because of these ideas. The market is trying to mount a seasonal rally now that the main harvest is over in Western Africa. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.641 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2240 and 2370 May. Support is at 2160, 2110, and 2075 May, with resistance at 2190, 2220, and 2235 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1420, and 1405 May, with resistance at 1475, 1495, and 1520 May.