Commodity, stock markets assess risk of Korean war

Commodity and stock report

Grains and Oilseeds: May corn closed limit down 40c per bushel at $6.95 ¼ tied to the USDA report showing inventories larger than analyst forecasts and that farmers will be planting the most since 1936. The USDA report showed inventories of corn on March 1st were down 10% from 2012 to a nine year low but the plantings figure was the highest in 77 years and that prompted the heavy long liquidation in corn. We still suggest the sidelines. May wheat closed at $6.88 ¼ per bushel, down 48c or 6.5% but had traded as low as $6.82 ¾ early in the session. As has been the case of late, we prefer the sidelines here as well. May soybeans closed at $14,04 ¾ per bushel, down 49c or 3.4%. The USDA report caused the general selloff in grains and beans and leaves us once again on the sidelines.

Meats: June cattle closed at $1.2440 per pound, up 1.425c tied to a recently reported reduction in the U.S. cattle herd. However, demand had shifted to the Australian export market and we could see renewed selling after the recent shortcovering dissipates. However, we would buy a few calls here just in the event the withholding of animals by farmers continues and provides the impetus for a meaningful rally. June hogs closed at 91.20 per pound, up 52.5 points but reported reduction in domestic and foreign demand for pork could prompt a new round of long liquidation. We don’t like hogs from here.

Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar: May coffee closed at $1.3650 per pound, down 10 ticks tied to sufficient world supplies and increased exports from Vietnam and Brazil. Stay out for now. May cocoa closed at $2167 per tonne, up $17 in sideways trade. We prefer the sidelines in cocoa for now. May sugar closed at 17.62c per pound, down 23 points but remains stable in anticipation of a possible lifting by the U.S. government on sugar curbs for this "controlled" industry. Adequate supplies continue to pressure prices so we are on the sidelines.

Cotton: May cotton closed at 88.39c per pound, down 14 points tied to the U.S. report showing sowings 1.0m acres over the industry forecast of last month. The market hoped higher prior to the report trading at 90.27c, up 1%, then selling off sharply to close down 0.2%. We are on the sidelines for now after having been bullish recently.

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About the Author
John L. Caiazzo



Information provided is from sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Futures and Options trading involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. John Caiazzo is a registered commodities broker with over 40 years experience in investments and opinions are his own and not of the Futures Commission Merchant to which he introduces his clients.

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