Oil gains despite inventories build, risks setback

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday 03/28/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/27/13 @ 109.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/27/13 @ 109.69. Upside Targets = 111.81 – 113.06.
    • May Brent Crude closed higher for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday as the price action has now generated an outside week and closed at its highest point in nine sessions.
    • Look for Brent to set back early in Thursday’s trading session after finding strong resistance at $110 before mounting a move back to the upside to finish the holiday shortened week strong.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.76
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.72
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/25/13 @ 93.95. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/07/13 @ 92.03. Upside Targets = 95.35 – 96.41.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 96.84.
    • May WTI Crude Oil moved higher once again on Wednesday despite a large build in crude inventories to close outside the daily RBB for the second consecutive day.
    • WTI should likewise see a modest setback in early trading on Thursday near the $96 mark before making a last stab at cracking the $97 threshold this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.66
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/27/13 @ 4.031 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/25/13 @ 4.051. Upside Targets = 4.135.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 4.103.
    • May Natural Gas roared higher as it followed through on Tuesday’s price action during Wednesday’s trading session to make new spot contract highs since September 2011.
    • Look for some continued strength on Thursday before the storage number is revealed with estimates of a withdrawal ranging from the mid-40s to 90 bcf.
  • Projected Daily Range: .131
  • Projected Weekly Range: .243
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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