Natural gas targets fresh contract highs after breaking $4

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday 03/27/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/19/13 @ 107.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 105.66 – 104.57.
  • Close > High of the Low Day generated on Tuesday.
  • May Brent Crude has soared higher over the past day and a half of trading on the heels of a strong crude market and a strong durable goods report as it settled at its highest point in six sessions on Tuesday.
  • Look for a slight pullback in early trading on Wednesday ahead of the storage report and with a positive number, a continuation of this week’s early strong price action.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.74
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.72
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/25/13 @ 93.95. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/07/13 @ 92.03. Upside Targets = 95.35 – 96.41.
  • New highs made on the current move Tuesday @ 96.45.
  • May WTI Crude Oil moved sharply higher on Tuesday on the very strong durable goods report as it closed at its highest level in 5 weeks and outside the daily RBB.
  • WTI narrowed the spread between itself and Brent further on Tuesday as it settled right at a $13 discount and traders should expected that spread to narrow even further as WTI approaches $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (May ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/25/13 @ 3.913. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 03/25/13 @ 3.888. Downside Targets = 3.747 – 3.671.
  • Inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
  • May Natural Gas reversed course in the second half of trading on Tuesday after an early congestion broke out to the upside toward the end of the day to press back through the $4 mark after hours.
  • Tuesday’s price action could spell new highs for this market even after being extremely overbought as bulls continue to press the market toward new contract highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .122
  • Projected Weekly Range: .243
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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