COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower Friday on follow through selling from less than expected export sales reported Thursday by USDA. News that India and China would sell into local markets from government supplies in an effort to keep prices down on Tuesday had its effect as well. The market has already rallied a lot and now seems to be correcting lower. A sideways to lower trade could develop until the end of the month and the USDA planting intentions reports. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for export have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the week. Weekend weather features rains in the Delta and Southeast and just some light precipitation in Texas. It was cold, but not too cold to hurt anything.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather until a few showers appear about Friday. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.427 million bales, from 0.424 million yesterday. Informa estimated US Cotton planted area at 10.367 million acres.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.00, 78.85, and 74.95 May. Support is at 86.20, 85.60, and 85.20 May, with resistance of 89.10, 89.80, and 90.45 May.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on forecasts from NOAA for a drier than normal Spring and Summer and on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. It was mostly a consolidation trade on Friday. Forecasts calling for colder temperatures through the end of the month provided some buying interest. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The temperatures should turn cooler this weekend and should stay cooler all of next week, but some rain could come with the cooler temperatures. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. ICE said that 1,014 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 1,014 contracts.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage is now 0.976 billion pounds.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.
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Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
