Stock market short-term trend looking more vulnerable

MAAD & CPFL Review


Market Snapshot for session ending 3-20-13


Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Resumption of selling Thursday caused all of major indexes to lose ground while positioning them to challenge lower edges of 10-Day Price Channels which, if penetrated on downside, would suggest end to uptrend begun after February 26 lows (1485.01—S&P 500).
  • Market volume rose by 3.5% Thursday.
  • Intermediate Cycle in S&P 500 remains positive until 1472.85 (through March 22).
  • Daily MAAD was negative by 3 to 17 Thursday and reached its lowest level since March 6. Most recent short to intermediate-term high was hit March 11. Daily MAAD Ratio dipped into “Oversold,” and negative, territory at .88
  • Daily CPFL was negative by 1.31 to 1 Thursday with Daily CPFL Ratio moderately “Overbought” at 1.90. Indicator remains well below major resistance created February 25, 2011.
  • Cumulative Volume (CV) in both S&P 500 and S&P Emini remains in synch with S&P 500 pricing in that both have moved higher since November lows, but long-term negative CV persists.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • With recent short-term highs (1563,62—S&P 500 on March 15) continuing to hold to extent buyers have been unable to muster enough buying power to overcome those levels decisively, near-term “Overbought” readings may increasingly be having some negative effects on market, Wednesday’s new closing high in VAY notwithstanding.
  • Since it will not take much selling pressure to terminate short-term trend uptrend begun after February 26 lows in a low volatility environment, a potentially bearish scenario, focus may soon change to larger intermediate trend.
  • Nonetheless, until we see confirmed reversal of positive short-term trend, pullback from recent highs is merely preliminary and not definitive.
  • Negative Minor Cycle would likely lead to one of two options – stability and near-term low before turning intermediate trend negative with subsequent resumption of uptrend, or more negativity and reversal of Intermediate Cycle in effect since November 16 lows (1343.35—S&P 500).


Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

SELL 1530.82

SELL 1535.90

SELL 1539.83

SELL 1543.93

SELL 1547.52

SELL 1472.85

SELL 1347.47

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 14203.71

SELL 14259.31

SELL 14303.42

SELL 14345.81

SELL 14383.59

SELL 13578.22

SELL 12675.84

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 3200.28

SELL 3209.77

SELL 3217.11

SELL 3226.15

SELL 3232.16

SELL 3098.79

SELL 2890.17

Value Line Index

SELL 3439.24

SELL 3454.04

SELL 3466.27

SELL 3479.52

SELL 3493.34

SELL 3297.86

SELL 2852.92

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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