Natural gas risks sell-off after failing to hold $4

Daily Market Analysis for Friday 03/22/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/19/13 @ 107.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 105.66 – 104.57.
  • New lows made on the current move Thursday @ 107.08.
  • May Brent Crude dropped lower on Thursday as most risk markets sank following uneasiness with the Cyprus situation continuing to be unresolved.
  • With the Eurozone’s economic situation having deteriorated further in March before the escalation of the Cyprian financial system, Brent faces decreasing demand and could continue to fall near the December 2012 spot lows at sub-$105.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.23
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/21/13 @ 92.35. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/07/13 @ 92.03. Upside Targets = 95.35 – 96.41.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 92.35.
  • May WTI Crude Oil dropped to trade at its lowest level in 8 sessions on Thursday as the Cyprus and Eurozone economic and financial newswires were amuck to add further pressure to the market.
  • WTI is currently much stronger, technically, that its Brent counterpart and should see a rally back higher on Friday to finish the session above $93.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.66
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/22/13 @ 3.349. Upside Targets = 3.447 – 3.511.
  • New highs made on the current move Thursday @ 4.025.
  • April Natural Gas logged its largest daily decline in more than two weeks on Thursday following a less than expected pull from storage supplies.
  • While the market actually came back to make new highs above $4 after the report, that move proved to be a stop-runner and based on the price action from Thursday, natural gas should drop to test the weekly lows on Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: .110
  • Projected Weekly Range: .259
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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