Cocoa moves higher on speculation of shortages


General Comments: Futures closed higher on forecasts from NOAA for a drier than normal Sprin and Summer and on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. Forecasts calling for colder temperatures through the end of the month provided some buying interest. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The temperatures should turn cooler this weekend and should stay cooler all of next week, but some rain could come with the cooler temperatures. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. ICE said that 1,014 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 1,014 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best chances for precipitation on Sunday. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.


General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday, with Sao Paulo the leader. News wires quoted the Societe General analyst yesterday as saying the Coffee prices had dropped enough. Brazil producers remain on the sidelines waiting for higher prices and government support programs. Talk of a big offseason crop coming this year in Brazil kept ideas that there will be a lot of Coffee for buyers around. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.93 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIUFFE stocks are now 12,240 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 125.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 125.00 May, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00, and 141.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2130, and 2115 May, and resistance is at 2200, 2220, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 161.00 May. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 159.00 September, and resistance is at 173.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on reports that the threatened port strike in Brazil had been cancelled. The congestion in ports has interrupted Sugar shipments as well as grains and oilseeds shipments, but now a major potential roadblock in exports has been reduced or removed. News of less Chinese imports in February hurt the price action as well. The market seems caught in a range between 1800 and 1900 basis New York May. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York and plenty of offers when a rally is made. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1810, 1750, and 1700 May. Support is at 1815, 1790, and 1780 May, and resistance is at 1850, 1865, and 1875 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 522.00 and 507.00 May. Support is at 525.00, 523.00, and 518.00 May, and resistance is at 533.00, 536.00, and 540.00 May.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at Learn even more on our website at

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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