SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on reports that the port congestion in Brazil was starting to affect Sugar shipments. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported values. The market seems caught in a range between 1800 and 1900 basis New York May. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York and plenty of offers when a rally is made. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. China imported 80,556 tons of Sugar in February, down 14.5% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1810, 1750, and 1700 May. Support is at 1815, 1790, and 1780 May, and resistance is at 1850, 1865, and 1875 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 522.00 and 507.00 May. Support is at 525.00, 523.00, and 518.00 May, and resistance is at 536.00, 540.00, and 544.00 May.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday on news that India and China would sell into local markets from government supplies in an effort to keep prices down. The announcements had the desired effect yesterday. The market has already rallied a lot and now seems to be forming a congestion area. A sideways to lower trade could develop until the end of the month. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for export have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions until precipitation develops Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal, then turn warmer this weekend. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal today and below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 83.82 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.421 million bales, from 0.421 million yesterday. China imported 378,835 tons of Cotton in February, down 38.5% from last year. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 114,100 bales this year and 74,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 40,000 bales this year and 7,400 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 86.25, 82.00, and 78.85 May. Support is at 88.20, 87.60, and 87.20 May, with resistance of 89.80, 90.50, and 91.80 May.
Next Page: Orange Juice, Coffee and Cocoa
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower on forecasts for some rains to move into the state of Florida this weekend, but held support on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. Forecasts calling for colder temperatures through the end of the month provided some buying interest. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The temperatures should turn cooler this weekend and should stay cooler all of next week, but some rain could come with the cooler temperatures. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday in London and Sao Paulo, with ideas that big selling will need to come from Brazil sooner or later keeping all buying interest away. Better weather in Vietnam hurt prices in London. New York was higher on some hopes for new demand after Bloomberg News noted that some roasters may start to put more Arabica in blends instead of Robusta as prices of Arabica are now cheap enough. An increase in offers from Central America due to sharply higher differentials and from Vietnam due to better weather helped push prices lower. Talk of a big offseason crop coming this year in Brazil kept ideas that there will be a lot of Coffee for buyers around. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. Brazil offers are not very strong right now. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.746 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.55 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 119 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 125.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 125.00 May, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00, and 141.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2130, and 2115 May, and resistance is at 2170, 2200, and 2220 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 161.00 May. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 159.00 September, and resistance is at 173.00, 177.00, and 180.00 September.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. Ideas that production in the coming year will be short helped the bulls as did a weaker US Dollar The market is trying to mount a seasonal rally now that the main harvest is over in Western Africa. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.433 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2075, and 2055 May, with resistance at 2155, 2175, and 2190 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1420, 1405, and 1385 May, with resistance at 1455, 1475, and 1495 May.
