Natural gas sees key pivot around $3.96

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday 03/21/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/19/13 @ 107.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 105.66 – 104.57.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • May Brent Crude gapped higher from Tuesday’s close as it moved back near the previous week’s mid-point after a draw in crude supplies helped to buoy the market before the Fed announced it was keeping rates at all-time lows.
  • Brent should move out to the side to continue to consolidate the losses sustained from Tuesday’s price action before making another fall lower below $107.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.23
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (May ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/06/13 @ 91.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 03/07/13 @ 92.03. Upside Targets = 95.35 – 96.41.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • May WTI Crude Oil settled exactly at the price mentioned in Tuesday evening’s report of $93.50 on Wednesday on the heels of continued accommodative policies from the Fed and a draw in crude stockpiles.
  • WTI should move lower on Thursday to begin the session before testing the $92.75 level and finding some support to build momentum towards challenging the $95 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.82
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/22/13 @ 3.349. Upside Targets = 3.447 – 3.511.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 3.976.
  • April Natural Gas dropped slightly lower for only the second time in 10 trading sessions on Wednesday as the market spent most of the pit session regaining lost ground from the sharp overnight sell-off.
  • With today’s storage number looming, bulls and bears were fighting hard around the $3.96 number toward the end of the session as this significantly overbought market will await the number with much anticipation for the next $0.20 move.
  • Projected Daily Range: .159
  • Projected Weekly Range: .259
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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