Coffee falls on speculation of big offseason crop in Brazil

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher again on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. Forecasts calling for colder temperatures through the end of the month provided some buying interest as well. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. The temperatures should turn cooler this weekend and should stay cooler all of next week. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on reports that the port congestion in Brazil was starting to affect Sugar shipments. The market seems caught in a range between 1800 and 1900 basis New York May. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York and plenty of offers when a rally is made. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. Iraq has tendered to buy 50,000 tons of Sugar.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1810, 1750, and 1700 May. Support is at 1815, 1790, and 1780 May, and resistance is at 1850, 1865, and 1875 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 522.00 and 507.00 May. Support is at 523.00, 518.00, and 513.00 May, and resistance is at 531.00, 536.00, and 540.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. The market is trying to mount a seasonal rally now that the main harvest is over in Western Africa. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.445 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2075, 2055, and 2035 May, with resistance at 2135, 2155, and 2175 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1400 May. Support is at 1405, 1385, and 1370 May, with resistance at 1435, 1455, and 1475 May.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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