Orange juice moves higher as disease, drought threaten crop


General Comments: Futures closed higher again on ideas of continuing crop losses from Greening Disease. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.


General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in response to ideas that the problems in Cyprus could hurt demand. The problems there made the US Dollar go higher and the Euro trade lower in a big enough way to make potential buyers think again about buying. The market has already rallied a lot, so some type of correction was probably coming, anyway. Demand ideas remain strong overall based on the strong export paces seen in the USDA reports in recent weeks and on reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, and sales for export have held up well given the price strength in recent weeks. The rally is coming at a time when certified stocks are building as well, although the overall certified stocks remain low. The current rally in new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions until precipitation develops Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 85.56 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.421 million bales, from 0.420 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 93.90 May. Support is at 89.80, 88.80, and 87.60 May, with resistance of 91.60, 92.60, and 93.90 May.

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