Low-volume buying could move corn; soybean inspections low

Grain & OIlseeds Report

Corn: For the most part, the market moving story in corn is still delayed Delta planting. This delayed planting talk might still be early to get excited about, but for now it fits well with the low-volume buying that we have been seeing. Monday's lead month volume was just over 84,000. Any number under 100,000 is considered slow. May corn still has open upside room to 725 before breaking the down trend line which means that light volume buying can take this market to at least that level.

This week, trade will be short on other news to talk about meaning focus can remain on the delayed planting talk as well as the weekly ethanol/export report numbers. There is still available room on the chart for a slow grind higher while this market waits for more significant news.

Be cautious on any low volume moves up or down this week as low volume moves in either direction can be quickly reversed on reports, especially major ones like we will see on the 28th…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: The outside markets were pressured on news that a Cyprus bank bailout would involve tapping into saving accounts of holders in the country. This had the world traders fearing a run on the banks. The outside market did manage to stabilize late in the session. At this time, the bailout measure has not been voted on and the specs of the bailout could change.

With all the confusion about the Cyprus bailout the U.S. dollar was high in safe have buying and that hurt the demand for commodities.  Until the Cyprus bailout is finalized, it will keep the market on edge.

Bean inspections came in with beans at 8.927 MB. This was viewed negative as the trade was expecting for shipment to be in the 17/22 MB range. We look for the market to chop sideways over the next few weeks with the $14.00 level providing support and the $15.00 level providing resistance. With the Quarterly stocks reports and acreage survey being released on the 28th it will help keep the market on edge…Jim McCormick
Wheat: Weather is starting to become a factor as more of the wheat is moving out of dormancy. Temperatures are continued to be forecast cool over the next two weeks. We have seen better moisture in the plains but the current forecasts of cool temps has some concerned the ratings may not get better as we move into spring.

Keep in mind these ratings were the worst ever heading into dormancy and the moisture conditions have improved but the trade is questioning is it enough to help already poor ratings. We may see this bounce start to bottom until we have an idea if the crop will start to look better moving from dormancy…Cordon Sroka

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com

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