Cyprus bailout proposal resurrects existential questions over euro

Some depositors are no doubt already withdrawing funds and this is no doubt why the U.S. dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and gold have been rising against the euro recently. In effect they are benefiting from capital flight from the Eurozone or at least the anticipation of it happening. 

If bank depositors in other peripheral Eurozone states decide to react by withdrawing funds, it will deeply complicate any rescue efforts. The European Central Bank's yet to be tapped Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program is designed to stabilize prices of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds, should they face a sell-off.

If that's accompanied by bank runs, a manageable crisis could escalate to levels that even the ECB, the Eurozone and the international community will struggle to contain in a globalized financial system prone to domino effects. Under such circumstances, capital flight out of the Eurozone could be intense, which could see the euro plunge across the board and may require external help from countries such as the United States, China and Japan to stabilize it.

A dangerous new dynamic

Eurozone leaders have injected a new negative dynamic into the Eurozone crisis and could cause further disparities in interest rates paid by banks and other borrowers within the Eurozone – a situation the ECB has been keen to avoid.

Bailing out Russian crooks who keep money in Cyprus might well be distasteful to other Eurozone countries, but they should have let common sense prevail. Instead there is now the far worse alternative of adding further complications to the Eurozone crisis, which could lead to bank runs, sovereign bankruptcies and exits from the euro.

If the Cyprus situation does evolve into a wider crisis of confidence in the Eurozone, it may force yet more integration at breakneck speed. A strong Eurozone wide depositor protection scheme and unified banking regulation may now be needed to counteract worries over bank runs, although it would be deeply unpopular in the more prosperous northern countries.

If these confidence sapping actions aren't addressed, future historians may come to view measures to tax Cypriot savers as a milestone toward the demise of the Euro itself.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Justin Pugsley

Justin Pugsley is the forex and gold markets analyst for New Zealand-based trading platform provider MahiFX. He is a keen student of markets, economics and history. Prior to working with MahiFX, Justin worked for a number of leading media organisations such as Thomson-Reuters and Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal.

comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome