Stock market volatility fades, cumulative volume lags price

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

The bullish crowd continued to prove its point last week by forcing new all-time highs (Dow 30, 20, and Value Line index) or the highest highs since the March 2009 lows (S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite index). But accompanying those highs are volatility numbers only slightly exceeded at the April 2010 and May 2011 intermediate-term highs. When combined with the fact that all cycles including Minor, Intermediate, and Major are historically “Overbought,” the odds are increasing that some retrenchment on the larger cycles could soon develop.

The first shoe to drop will be on the Minor Cycle. How that pullback develops will then affect the staying power of the larger Intermediate Cycle that has withstood two pullbacks since the November 16 intermediate lows. Inevitably, however, there will be a short-term decline that will persist negatively, and the still positive Intermediate Cycle will be relegated to stock market history. What happens then could determine the staying power of the major advance in effect since March 2009.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

2-1-13

17

3

2-1-13

17057

14662

2-4-13

4

16

2-4-13

18445

18181

2-5-13

17

3

2-5-13

25202

18738

2-6-13

11

9

2-6-13

22708

6372

2-7-13

6

14

2-7-13

10706

8964

2-8-13

12

8

2-8-13

11757

10102

2-11-13

15

5

2-11-13

7341

9714

2-12-13

14

6

2-12-13

14035

10674

2-13-13

9

11

2-13-13

22996

19130

2-14-13

10

9

2-14-13

22966

6378

2-15-13

6

13

2-15-13

39599

8680

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-19-13

15

5

2-19-13

59240

9448

2-20-13

1

19

2-20-13

9641

28039

2-21-13

3

17

2-21-13

26937

21352

2-22-13

16

4

2-22-13

13544

8585

2-25-13

2

18

2-25-13

10545

52295

2-26-13

14

5

2-26-13

15739

18237

2-27-13

17

3

2-27-13

24868

14009

2-28-13

7

13

2-28-13

26456

11302

3-1-13

15

4

3-1-13

18832

14308

3-4-13

15

4

3-4-13

8503

8242

3-5-13

17

3

3-5-13

23430

23985

3-6-13

15

5

3-6-13

19515

8208

3-7-13

14

6

3-7-13

14096

18490

3-8-13

10

9

3-8-13

34830

8963

3-11-13

15

5

3-11-13

34954

18636

3-12-13

5

15

3-12-13

29331

10362

3-13-13

8

11

3-13-13

5472

8436

3-14-13

16

4

3-14-13

25042

9248

3-15-13

6

14

3-15-13

67381

8340

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

2-8-13

10

9

2-8-13

79635

31633

2-15-13

11

9

2-15-13

81129

33755

2-22-13

4

16

2-22-13

92498

42338

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

3-8-13

19

1

3-8-13

99617

35462

3-15-13

13

7

3-15-13

146291

30502

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 

 

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About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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