Cocoa looks for low prices to cure low prices

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower again as the market paused for one more day after the big rally. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers and could use more rain. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are missed to up with objectives of 137.00 May. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 144.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday. Talk of a big offseason crop coming this year kept ideas that there will be a lot of Coffee for buyers around. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press. Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions, but some now talk of less than expected production.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.737 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.97 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 113 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2230 May. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2130 May, and resistance is at 2190, 2220, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 168.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.

 SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The market is congesting for another move, and for now the congestion area looks as much like a bull flag as anything. Chart trends in London and New York are mostly up, but the bulls have not been able to push New York prices above 1900 May, at least not yet. Ample offers seem to appear above that level. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York. Reports indicate that the Chinese have been using price weakness to buy more Sugar than the trade had anticipated. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Exports from other countries are said to be less than expected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1900 and 1990 May. Support is at 1850, 1835, and 1815 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1940 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 531.00, 529.00, and 527.00 May, and resistance is at 540.00, 541.00, and 544.00 May.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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