Sugar falls as traders look for large inventory injection

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower as the market paused after the big rally. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers and could use more rain. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 137.00 May. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 146.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday. Talk of a big offseason crop coming this year kept ideas that there will be a lot of Coffee for buyers around. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. London prices were able to rally. The crops in Vietnam need rain but have not been getting very much. Producers there say losses could be 25% of the production of last year, and offers from there have started to move lower in volume. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and rust is now reported in Peru. Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions, but some now talk of less than expected production.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.725 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 133.10 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 113 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2230 May. Support is at 2170, 2160, and 2140 May, and resistance is at 2220, 2230, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Most of the recent buying seemed to be chart based, but there was some talk of new demand again. Ideas are that current low prices should create new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid-crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production deficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 840 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.350 million bags. LIFFE March deliveries were 72,350 tons.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2130, 2110, and 2085 May, with resistance at 2175, 2190, and 2220 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1490 and 1565 May. Support is at 1450, 1435, and 1405 May, with resistance at 1475, 1495, and 1520 May.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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