Bonds fall as jobless claims decline

Financials: June Bonds are currently 21 lower at 140’29 and the 10-year Notes 9 lower at 130’06.0. This morning’s Weekly Jobless Claims showed a decline of 10,000 vs. expectations of a slight increase. PPI was right in line with expectations showing an increase for Feb. of 0.7%. We are flat coming in this morning with a neutral bias. Treat as a trading affair between 140’20 and 142’26. I feel at this point in time that the Bonds are oversold and prefer to trade from the long side for short term trades.

Grains: As of this writing the May Corn is currently fractionally lower at 710’0, May Beans 5’0 lower at 1442’0, May Wheat 3’4 higher at 713’4 and Dec. Wheat 1’2 lower at 726’0. We remain long out-of-the-money call spreads in Dec. Wheat. As for outright positions, I remain on the sidelines awaiting a buying opportunity in Corn below 675’0 for the May contract.

Cattle: Apr. LC are currently 30 higher at 128.85 and Apr. FC unchanged at 142.27. My bias remains negative, that being said, I feel for the short term these markets are oversold and recommend covering all speculative short positions.

Silver: May Silver is currently $0.35 cents lower at $28.62 and Apr. Gold is $10.00 lower at $1,580.00. We continue to hold a small long position in Silver. Apr. Gold failed to hold onto Tues. morning’s gains closing below the $1,597.00 level, unable to technically indicate a change in trend (currently down). Support remains in the mid-$1,560,s. I will once again try going long (against the trend) in the $1,568.00 area if the market allows with a protective sell stop just below the $1,562.00 level.

S&Ps: June S&Ps are currently 3.00 higher at 1553.00. Treat as a trading market between 1541.00 and 1557.00. Use caution and close stops.

Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is currently 28 lower at 1.2940, the Swiss 26 lower at 1.0483, the Yen 42 lower at 1.0377 and the Pound 17 higher at 1.4932. My bias is turning from negative to neutral putting me on the sidelines as I feel these markets are currently oversold particularly the Yen.

About the Author
Marc Nemenoff

Mr. Nemenoff is a 40-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Over the years he grew to become an independent member of the exchange and spent many years as a trader, market maker, lecturer, and committee member. Since 2004 Marc has been a senior broker and analyst handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers in addition to institutional traders. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets that includes his own perspective on market direction. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental and is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. You can contact Marc by phone at (888) 908-4310 or by email at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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