Oil bounces on improving macroeconomic data

Spring Ahead!

Other highlights from the Energy Information Administration "Short Term Energy Outlook:”

 Petroleum: "Higher U.S. oil production means America will need less imported oil. After reaching a record 60% of domestic oil demand in 2005, net oil imports next year are forecast to fall to 32% of consumption, the lowest level since 1985.”

The trend of falling U.S. oil imports and rising Chinese oil demand is moving China closer to passing the United States as the largest global net oil importer.  Net oil imports for the United States and China were on par at 6 million barrels per day in December 2012, according to the most recent trade data from EIA and China's General Administration of Customs. "

Gasoline Prices: "U.S. average gasoline prices have declined over the past two weeks, with the price at $3.71 on March 11. Previously, U.S. average gasoline prices had risen from an annual low of $3.25 per gallon on December 17, 2012, to $3.78 per gallon on February 25, 2013, which was the highest pump price ever during the month of February." "Also,  EIA expects the switchover from winter to more costly summer-grade gasoline will keep average gasoline prices near current levels through the spring before falling crude prices help reduce U.S. gasoline prices to an average $3.50 per gallon in the second half of this year and then to $3.38 during 2014."

Natural Gas: "U.S. natural gas production should level off from the growth seen in recent years, and natural gas consumption is expected to remain around 70 billion cubic feet per day for 2013 and 2014.”"As the winter heating season comes to an end, EIA expects natural gas inventories at the close of March will total just under 2 trillion cubic feet.  That is less than the unusually high 2.5 trillion cubic feet seen last year, but still more than the five-year average of 1.7 trillion cubic feet.” “EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas price will gradually rise through the end of 2014 but remain below an average $4 per million Btu throughout the next two years.”

Electricity: "During 2012 the amount of power generation in the United States fueled by coal declined by 13%. Some of this reduction was due to the retirement of coal-fired generating capacity. " "The electric power industry retired 7.9 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity last year, which represents 2.5% of the installed coal capacity at the beginning of 2012. In comparison, power suppliers retired 2.6 gigawatts of coal capacity during 2011 and on average 1 gigawatt annually between 2006 and 2010. The coal‐fired capacity retired during 2012 was offset somewhat by the addition of five new coal‐fired generating units with a combined capacity of 3.6 gigawatts.” " Although more retirements are likely this year, EIA expects power generators to increase their use of existing coal capacity in response to higher natural gas prices relative to coal prices, leading to a 6.2% increase in coal generation during 2013.” 

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About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


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