Coffee falls as possible large offseason crop looms

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher for one more day as traders factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers and could use more rain. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 137.00 May. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 146.00 May.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Many are still saying that big supplies are coming to the market. Chart trends in London and New York are up, but the bulls have not been able to push New York prices above 1900 May, at least not yet. Ample offers seem to appear above that level. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York, and it seems that the market might be developing a trading range. Reports indicate that the Chinese have been using price weakness to buy more Sugar than the trade had anticipated. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Exports from other countries are said to be less than expected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1900 and 1990 May. Support is at 18650, 1835, and 1815 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1940 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 531.00, 529.00, and 527.00 May, and resistance is at 540.00, 541.00, and 544.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through speculative buying. Mot of the buying seemed to be chart based, but there was some tlk of new demand again. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 2 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 840 contracts. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.339 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2130, 2110, and 2085 May, with resistance at 2175, 2190, and 2220 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1490 and 1565 May. Support is at 1450, 1435, and 1405 May, with resistance at 1475, 1495, and 1520 May.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome