Orange juice moves higher on worries of disease and drought

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday as the threat of big offers from Brazil kept would be buyers sidelined. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. Less offer is being noted from Vietnam amid reports of a drought there, and London prices were able to rally. The crops in Vietnam need rain but have not been getting very much if any, and there is no relief in sight. Producers there say losses could be 25% of the production of last year, and offers from there have started to move lower in volume. Ideas of big supplies, mostly from Brazil, keep the selling alive. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and rust is now reported in Peru. Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Vietnam producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses due to prolonged drought in the Central Highlands. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.720 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.78 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 108 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2230 May. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2130 May, and resistance is at 2205, 2220, and 2230 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading. Chart trends in London and New York are up, but the bulls have not been able to push New York prices above 1900 May, at least not yet. Ample offers seem to appear above that level. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York, and it seems that the market might be developing a trading range. Reports indicate that the Chinese have been using price weakness to buy more Sugar than the trade had anticipated. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. The blend will contain 25% ethanol, from 20% now. Middle East demand seems stronger as well as the festival season approaches. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Exports from other countries are said to be less than expected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. China produced 2.9 million tons of Refined Sugar in February, down 12% from last year. Calendar year to date production is now 6.04 million tons, down 0.1% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1900 and 1990 May. Support is at 1860, 1835, and 1815 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1940 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 531.00, 527.00, and 523.00 May, and resistance is at 540.00, 541.00, and 544.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be follow through buying from the rally last Friday. Futures have tested into target áreas for the move down in the last week and could experience more short covering for the next few sessions. Ideas of new demand at the current lower prices helped créate the rally. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and dry in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 1 contract was delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 838 contracts. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 4.352 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 939,000 tons, down 6.5% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2035 May, with resistance at 2145, 2155, and 2190 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1455, 1490, and 1565 May. Support is at 1435, 1405, and 1380 May, with resistance at 1450, 1475, and 1495 May.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus